This is Exercise #13 of the twenty-five Exercises in Song for Christmas 2008.
"Probabilistic " originally appeared on p184 of Raymond Queneau's Exercices de Style in the 1998 Calderbook translation.
To be sung to the tune of "Show Me The Way To Go Home". More information here.
Odds that one's wishes for rest
And places to rest in coincide,
Where sleepiness is caused by drinking far from one's house—
Such a chance, in truth, is slight.
I make it one in three
That I'll find land, foam or sea.
But your list'ning to this song is, by now,
Something of a certainty!